ASSESSING COMBINED RISKS OF RISING SEAS, INTENSE HURRICANES, AND FLOODING IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Abstract:

The Caribbean faces escalating threats from rising sea levels, intensified hurricanes, and consequential flooding. Preparing for the effects of these events requires understanding past sea level rise and flooding extent from significant precipitation events. Projections forecast that the Caribbean region will exceed the worldwide average sea level rise and witness less frequent yet
more intense hurricanes. The Dominican Republic, the second largest country in the Caribbean, has historically experienced devastating hurricanes and floods, which led to infrastructure damage, landslides, and loss of human life. Despite the evident threats of rising sea levels, hurricanes, and floods, there is a notable absence of research concerning the combined effects of these threats in the Dominican Republic. We examine the current state of research with a literature review to understand the drivers of sea level change in the Dominican Republic during the Holocene. Subsequently, we employ a flood mapping methodology developed by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) to delineate flood extents resulting from three major precipitation events that significantly affected the country. Our findings reveal a substantial historical sea level rise in the Dominican Republic during the Holocene, reaching rates of up to 8.2 ± 0.6 meters per thousand years. Flood occurrences are primarily linked to extreme precipitation events, with the National District, the most densely populated province, consistently experiencing moderate to severe flooding during each hurricane event analyzed. This study projects the cumulative impact of increasingly intense hurricanes to surpass the influence of rising sea levels in the Dominican Republic. Consequently, understanding the anticipated future effects of hurricanes combined with rising sea levels is imperative, particularly for nations already grappling with multiple hurricanes
each season. This research underscores the urgency of comprehensive strategies and adaptive measures to mitigate the multifaceted risks posed by rising sea levels, hurricanes, and flooding in the Caribbean region.